KBRA Revises Outlook to Positive from Stable, Affirms BBB+ Ratings for Colorado High Performance Transportation Enterprise’s $501 Million Express Lane Revenue Bonds (TIFIA)
2 Jul 2026 | New York
KBRA revises its Outlook to Positive from Stable and affirms its BBB+ ratings for Colorado High Performance Transportation Enterprise’s $501 million I-25 North Express Lanes Revenue Bonds (TIFIA). The financing plan for the project consists of revenue bonds (the TIFIA bond), which evidences a loan of $501 million from the U.S. Department of Transportation (the lender) to Colorado High Performance Transportation Enterprise (CHPTE). The TIFIA bond constitutes federal project credit assistance under the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) for the I-25 North Express Lanes Project (the project). The TIFIA bond has a subordinate lien priority in toll revenues and other cash flows generated in connection with the project, which included only segment two and segment three. TIFIA bond proceeds will fund eligible project costs for segments five to eight of the project, which did not form part of the trust estate as of financial close.
CHPTE partnered with the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) to operate the project in accordance with an intra-agency agreement and the E470 Public Highway Authority (E470 PHA)―a local governmental authority formed by the counties of Adams, Arapahoe, and Douglas―to collect toll revenues and provide other toll services.
Key Credit Considerations
(+) Toll Revenues Slightly Above Projections
Gross transactions on segment 2 totaled 10.8 million for 2025, up 1.3% from 2024. Similarly, gross transactions totaled 3.4 million for the first four months of 2026, up 5.8% from the same period last year. For segment 3, gross transactions for 2025 were 5.7 million, up 5.3% from 2024 and from January to April 2026 transactions reached 1.7 million, up 5.6% from the same period in 2025. Toll revenue (after leakage) for 2025 of $24.8 million is 2.0% above KBRAs expected level of $24.3 million.
(+) Strong Debt Service Metrics
The debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) for the trailing twelve-month period ended December 31, 2025, was 3.94x, exceeding KBRA’s expected level of 2.66x. The stronger-than-anticipated coverage was primarily driven by toll revenues that outperformed KBRA’s projections, as well as revenue from toll evasion violations collected through the Safety and Toll Enforcement Program (STEP), which carry fees much higher than toll charges. As a result, total project revenues reached $33.2 million, compared with KBRA’s expectation of $24.3 million for the same period.
(+) Transaction Liquidity
The project benefits from several liquidity sources, including a debt service reserve account, operations and maintenance reserve account, and a renewal and replacement account, which are all funded at levels at or above market precedent.
(+) Segments 6-8 Tolling Commencement
As of April 7, 2026, operations on Segments 6-8 officially commenced, expanding the project’s revenue-generating asset base by adding approximately 47 miles of new tolled facilities to the existing network. This successful transition of Segments 6-8 from construction to operations supports future revenue growth and strengthens the project’s long-term cash flow and debt service coverage profile. Because KBRA's rating case did not include revenues from Segments 6-8, their commencement provides upside to future financial performance.
Surveillance Rating Rationale
Traffic and revenues have continued to perform at or above KBRA’s rating case expectations since the initial rating was issued in 2023. While revenues have normalized from the elevated levels observed in 2024 due to a significant decline in toll violations and associated civil penalty collections, underlying traffic and toll revenue trends remain strong. The trailing twelve-month DSCR of 3.94x as of December 31, 2025, exceeded KBRA’s expected level of 2.66x. Under KBRA’s rating case, the project is expected to maintain an average DSCR of 2.30x through the term of the bonds. These factors, together with the project’s KBRA Project Risk Score (KPRS) of Strong and continued favorable performance during the surveillance period, support the affirmation of the rating. In addition, the potential for further strengthening of the project’s credit profile as Segments 6–8 continue to ramp up supports the Positive Outlook.
Outlook
The Positive Outlook reflects KBRA's expectations that the project's consistently strong traffic and revenue performance will further benefit from the commencement of operations on Segments 6-8, which expands the project's revenue-generating asset base and in turn will support stronger cash flow generation and debt service coverage over time. A rating upgrade may occur if revenues and coverage metrics continue to improve as the newly operational segments mature.
Rating Sensitivities
A rating upgrade could occur if toll revenues are significantly better than expected and consistently outperform KBRA’s projections.
KBRA may downgrade the rating if traffic volumes are significantly lower than KBRA’s projections, resulting in cash flow available for debt service being consistently below KBRA's projections.
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