Auto Loan ABS: Why Borrower Pockets Matter More Than Pool Averages
Auto loan ABS performance has become increasingly asymmetric. Stronger borrowers have remained comparatively resilient, while borrowers with weaker credit profiles and higher payment burdens have accounted for a disproportionate share of delinquencies and losses. Pool-level averages such as weighted average (WA) credit score and WA payment-to-income (PTI) remain useful first-level indicators of a securitized pool’s credit quality, but they can obscure risk concentrations within borrower subgroups. As a result, the more revealing question is not only what the average borrower looks like, but how much of the pool is exposed to borrower pockets that have experienced the greatest performance deterioration.
Key Takeaways
Auto loan ABS performance has become increasingly asymmetric. Since 2022, 60+ day delinquencies (DQ) and annualized net losses (ANL) increased across borrower segments, but deterioration was far more pronounced among Mixed, Stretched, and Stressed borrowers than…
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