Report|23 Oct 2026

Republic of Italy Surveillance Report

Executive Summary

KBRA affirms the long-term and short-term issuer ratings of the Republic of Italy.

Ratings Outlook

The Positive Outlook reflects KBRA’s view that continued fiscal and structural improvements could further strengthen Italy’s credit profile, particularly if primary surpluses are sustained and the fading impact of Superbonus supports a durable decline in public debt from 2028. Continued investment and National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP)-related reforms should support economic resilience and institutional capacity, although weak productivity and modest trend growth remain key constraints. External risks remain elevated, particularly from energy prices, trade disruption and geopolitical tensions, but strong market access, a favourable external position and improved banking sector fundamentals provide important buffers.

Key Credit Considerations

The ratings were affirmed because of the following key credit considerations:

Strengthening Fiscal Position

Fiscal performance…

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