KBRA Affirms BBB- Rating for San Bernardino County Transportation Authority’s Toll Revenue Second Lien Obligation, 2021 TIFIA Series
30 Jun 2026 | New York
KBRA affirms its BBB- rating for San Bernardino County Transportation Authority’s $225 million toll revenue second lien obligation, 2021 TIFIA Series. The Outlook is Stable.
Key Credit Considerations
(+) Substantial Completion Achieved
Following over four years of construction, the I-10 Express Lanes became fully operational on August 28, 2024, and was awarded the certificate of substantial completion on November 19, 2025. The 10-mile segment represents a critical regional connector, improving eastbound and westbound mobility between Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. KBRA will continue to monitor the long-term traffic volumes and overall usage of the road through the ramp-up period.
(+) Positive Traffic Volumes
For the trailing twelve-month (TTM) period from April 2025 through March 2026, the express lanes recorded approximately 14.4 million total trips, of which 11.1 million were tolled trips. Tolled trips, consisting of single-occupancy vehicles (SOV), high-occupancy vehicles with two occupants (HOV2), and clean air vehicles (CAV), accounted for an average of 77% of total traffic. The CAV discount program concluded in October 2025. Despite still being in the ramp-up phase, the facility demonstrated stable utilization, with monthly traffic volumes remaining consistent over the TTM period. Additionally, the express lanes continue to provide reliable speed and travel time savings, with SBCTA estimating 111,365 vehicle hours saved from January-March 2026.
(+) Strong Financial Performance
Over the TTM period ending in March 2026, SBCTA's financial operations remained stable as tolling revenues continued to improve since revenue commencement. The SBCTA team continues to review reporting and collection trends to identify opportunities to increase revenue recovery. The gross potential revenue (GPR) totaled $24.3 million during the TTM period ending in March 2026, exceeding KBRA's projected toll revenues of $16.6 million by approximately 46.3%.
(+/-) Outstanding Balance
As of December 31, 2025, compounded interest on the TIFIA loan totaled $15.1 million, resulting in an outstanding balance of $240.1 million. Under the loan agreement, interest will continue to be capitalized through June 2027, providing additional time for traffic and revenue generation to mature before the project must rely on operating cash flows to support debt service. Current traffic and revenue performance continue to exceed KBRA's original expectations, supporting stronger-than-projected cash flow generation and reducing near-term pressure on the financing structure.
Surveillance Rating Rationale
The rating affirmation is supported by stronger-than-expected traffic and revenue performance during the facility's ramp-up period. Toll revenues outperformed KBRA’s expectation for the TTM month period ending March 2026, reflecting both stable demand and limited sensitivity to higher toll rates. The credit profile also benefits from the continued capitalization of TIFIA interest through June 2027, providing additional time for traffic and revenues to mature before the project must rely solely on operating cash flows to support debt service. KBRA will continue to monitor traffic volumes, revenue trends, and the facility's progression toward self-supporting operations.
Outlook
The Stable Outlook on the notes reflects KBRA’s belief that the express lanes will continue to perform consistently throughout the ramp-up phase, with stable trends in both traffic and revenues. A rating upgrade during the ramp-up phase and the payment-in-kind (PIK) period is unlikely. KBRA may lower the rating if traffic and revenues underperform compared to KBRA’s rating case, resulting in lower-than-expected future ridership that could impact the project’s ability to generate the required cash flows to cover its mandatory debt service.
Rating Sensitivities
KBRA could upgrade the rating if traffic ramp-up and toll revenues are significantly better than expected and consistently outperform KBRA’s projections.
KBRA may downgrade the rating if traffic volumes are significantly lower than KBRA’s projections during the operations phase.
To access ratings and relevant documents, click here.