With the Federal Reserve’s December meeting drawing near, market participants will be closely watching the central bank’s policy decision and guidance to aid in their projections for 2026. Meanwhile, declining borrowing costs in 2025 have contributed to healthy commercial real estate (CRE) securitization issuance. For commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), the $115.2 billion of issuance year-to-date (YTD) through November already marks the highest level since full-year 2007, and CRE collateralized loan obligations’ (CLO) $29.6 billion is the highest since full-year 2022. Year-over-year (YoY), YTD CMBS issuance increased 18.9%, and CRE CLOs by over 3x (albeit from depressed levels).
Looking toward December—based on our current visibility, up to 14 deals could launch, including six single-borrower (SB), three conduits, three CRE CLOs, and two Freddie Mac fixed-rate K-deals (Agency).
The November conduit benchmark last cash flow (LCF) AAA class was at an average of swaps (S) +78…