Significant macroeconomic shifts have reshaped the landscape since the publication of our previous Conduit CMBS Default and Loss Study in November 2021. Following the pandemic’s onset, inflation surged and interest rates climbed rapidly while the office sector fell sharply out of favor.
While the effects of these economic pressures have yet to be fully reflected across the outstanding CMBS 2.0 vintage securitizations, the cumulative default rate edged up to 16.9% from 16.8%. This uptick stems from new defaults outpacing the addition of new loans to the CMBS universe/study population. Since 2022, annual defaults have increased 65% in 2023 and 80% in 2024.
Since our previous report—based on performance data between 1995 and Q2 2021—an additional 773 loans defaulted through Q1 2025, taking the cumulative default count to 18,315 from…