U.S. CMBS finished the year at $125.8 billion—its highest issuance level since the global financial crisis (GFC)—with a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 18.6%, and in line with our 2025 forecast of $120 billion. Contributing to the increase was the continuing strong investor appetite for single-borrower (SB) deals at $91.1 billion, which accounted for 72.5% of issuance, with the remaining represented by conduits. Commercial real estate (CRE) collateralized loan obligation (CLO) issuance ended the year at $30.6 billion, about 3.5x the 2024 level, and nearly double our forecast. This momentum is continuing in 2026—January, based on our current visibility, could see up to 22 deals including nine SB, six conduit, six CRE CLO, and one Freddie Mac (Agency).
The December conduit benchmark last cash flow (LCF) AAA class was at an average of swaps (S) +81 basis points (bps) based on the six conduit deals that were priced between S +76 bps and S +85 bps. Four conduits were five-year deals,…