The single-borrower (SB) CMBS sector has existed for over three decades and has historically experienced very few defaults and minimal losses over that period. However, the unprecedented events that commercial real estate (CRE) faced over the past six years have left an indelible mark on the sector.
Since our last SB default and loss study in 2022, the cumulative default rate has risen sharply across the sector. The default rate reached 12.9% as of September 2025, doubling from 6.4% in September 2022 and rising significantly higher than the 1.4% reported in our 2019 update. The office sector led the deterioration, with its default rate increasing to 19.7% from 1.9% in the prior study.
As with many of the default trends discussed in this report, the increase must be viewed within the broader context of…