KBRA Assigns Miami-Dade County Aviation Revenue Bonds AA-, Outlook Revised to Positive
7 Feb 2025 | New York
KBRA assigns a long-term rating of AA-, with a Positive Outlook to the Miami-Dade County Aviation Revenue Bonds, Series 2025A (AMT), Series 2025B (Non-AMT) and Series 2025C (Taxable). In addition, KBRA affirms the long-term rating of AA- assigned to outstanding Aviation Revenue Bonds and revises the Outlook to Positive from Stable. As of October 1, 2025, approximately $4.5 billion of Aviation Revenue Bonds were outstanding.
The Positive Outlook reflects Miami International Airport’s (MIA’s or the “Airport’s”) improving financial profile, underpinned by continuing, very strong growth in domestic and international passenger traffic. MIA remains an outlier among many of its large hub peers, particularly in the sunbelt, as it has sustained, if not improved upon, the record enplanement levels experienced in the immediate, post-pandemic environment. Should the Airport successfully implement and fund subsequent phases of its already large ($7.5 billion), and expected to grow, multi-year capital plan, and maintain financial flexibility and airline costs in-line with forecasted levels, upward rating action may be warranted.
Proceeds of the Series 2025A,B and C Bonds (the "Bonds") will be used, along with other legally available funds of Miami-Dade County (“the County”), to refund and redeem all or a portion of outstanding Commercial Paper Notes, Series 2021, finance or reimburse the County for costs associated with various CIP projects, fund a deposit, if necessary, to the common Reserve Account, and pay various costs of issuance. Aviation Revenue Bonds are special limited obligations of the County, payable primarily from Net Revenues derived from the operation of MIA. The Department, an enterprise fund of the County, operates MIA, along with three general aviation airports and a training airport.
Key Credit Considerations
Credit Positives
- Large and growing air service area, anchored by the City, a vibrant center for tourism and trade.
- Advantageous geographic location as an international gateway to Latin America and the Caribbean.
- Healthy operating performance, liquidity and an effectively managed CIP.
Credit Challenges
- Elevated debt metrics, which may be further pressured by future issuance of GARBs to fund the CIP.
- Moderate, continued reliance on international traffic, which exposes MIA to foreign economic and health risks.
Rating Sensitivities
For Upgrade
- Further strengthening of liquidity and debt service coverage, coupled with moderating leverage.
For Downgrade
- Issuance of additional debt not supported by a commensurate rise in resources for its repayment.
- An unexpected, severe decline in passenger traffic that pressures operating performance and liquidity.
To access ratings and relevant documents, click here.