KBRA believes 2026 will be a pivotal year for the broader private credit landscape. We expect strong growth across a wide range of rated private credit entities and transactions, offering global investors an increasing set of fixed income pathways into private markets. These pathways provide not only predictable income, but also the ability to tailor risk exposure relative to the underlying private strategy.
Alongside this growth, KBRA expects rising complexity that will reshape the contours of credit risk across many rated private credit vehicles. For example, the increased presence of asset-based finance (ABF) collateral, retail investors, new geographies, and longer-duration funds can introduce new risk profiles, which some managers are better positioned to manage than others.
Meanwhile, KBRA also expects increasing signs of stress among some private credit platforms as they contend with the burdens of growth and the difficulties in deploying capital into traditional investment…