Press Release|Public Finance
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KBRA Revises Outlook to Stable for Chicago Transit Authority, IL Series 2016 (Rail Fleet Renewal Project) and Series 2015 (Your New Blue Project) TIFIA Bonds; Affirms AA- Ratings

8 Apr 2026   |   New York

Contacts

KBRA affirms the long-term AA- rating for the Chicago Transit Authority's (the Authority or CTA) Series 2016 (Rail Fleet Renewal Project) and Series 2015 (Your New Blue Project) Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) loans. Concurrently KBRA revises the Outlook on both loans to Stable from Negative.

The Outlook revision reflects the Illinois legislature’s approval of Senate Bill 2111 (SB 2111), which materially increases operating and capital funding for the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) and the three Service Boards (CTA, METRA (suburban commuter rail), and PACE (suburban bus)) it oversees. The CTA estimates it will receive over $500 million in additional sales tax receipts annually beginning in the second half of FY 2026 (partial year), which should address the previously anticipated operating shortfalls for FY 2026 and beyond.

The rating continues to reflect the robust level of TIFIA Loan debt service coverage provided by a gross lien on transit fare and pass revenues derived from CTA operations (farebox revenues) and deposited daily to the Trustee-held Farebox Pledged Revenues Account.

Key Credit Considerations

Credit Positives

  • The strong security provisions of the April 1, 2014 TIFIA loan Master Trust Indenture (the MTI) and the essentiality of CTA’s urban transit operations to the economic and social infrastructure of the greater Chicago metropolitan area underpin the rating.
  • The gross revenue pledge supports currently robust coverage of TIFIA loan debt service.
  • Passage of Senate Bill 2111 provides significant ongoing operating and capital resources to CTA.

Credit Challenges

  • CTA’s high fixed-cost structure contributes to a lack of operating expense flexibility. Liquidity is low.
  • Farebox revenues are economically volatile. Severe service declines precipitated by funding insufficiencies could interrupt or reverse CTA’s ridership recovery trend.

Rating Sensitivities

For Upgrade

  • Sustained annual increases in total operating revenue that outpace growth in operating expenditures.
  • A trend of improved system liquidity.

For Downgrade

  • A sustained trend of structurally unbalanced financial operations and/or a significant decline in system liquidity.

To access ratings and relevant documents, click here.

Methodologies

Disclosures

A description of all substantially material sources that were used to prepare the credit rating and information on the methodology(ies) (inclusive of any material models and sensitivity analyses of the relevant key rating assumptions, as applicable) used in determining the credit rating is available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) located here.

Information on the meaning of each rating category can be located here.

Further disclosures relating to this rating action are available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) referenced above. Additional information regarding KBRA policies, methodologies, rating scales and disclosures are available at www.kbra.com.

About KBRA

Kroll Bond Rating Agency, LLC (KBRA), one of the major credit rating agencies (CRA), is a full-service CRA registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is registered as a CRA with the European Securities and Markets Authority. Kroll Bond Rating Agency UK Limited is registered as a CRA with the UK Financial Conduct Authority. In addition, KBRA is designated as a Designated Rating Organization (DRO) by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency by Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission and is recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider (CRP) in the U.S.

Doc ID: 1014333