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KBRA Affirms AA Rating, Stable Outlook to Metropolitan Transportation Authority, NY Transportation Revenue Bonds

11 Mar 2026   |   New York

Contacts

KBRA affirms the long-term rating of AA with a Stable Outlook to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, NY Transportation Revenue Bonds ("TRB"). The long-term rating continues to reflect the robust coverage of Transportation Revenue Bond (“TRB”) debt service provided by the gross lien pledge of fares and other operating revenues from the New York City Transit, Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Commuter and Bus systems, surplus Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) operating revenue, various state and local subsidies, and dedicated taxes (collectively, “Pledged Revenues”). Counterbalancing these strengths are an exceptionally high fixed cost burden that remains an impediment to sustained, balanced operations, and risks to growth in paid ridership and in the various special tax-supported operating subsidies upon which the MTA is reliant. Outstanding TRBs of $16.7 billion at February 20, 2026 were 34% of total outstanding MTA/TBTA obligations.

Key Credit Considerations

The rating was affirmed because of the following key credit considerations:

Credit Positives

  • The gross revenue pledge supports strong coverage of annual debt service. Sound liquidity and reserves provide adequate operating flexibility.
  • MTA’s transportation assets serve over 15 million people and are essential to the economic well-being of the New York City metropolitan area.

Credit Challenges

  • Aging infrastructure, climate change resilience, and evolving ridership patterns introduce long-term challenges requiring extensive capital investment.
  • An exceptionally high fixed cost burden, including contractually required labor-related obligations and debt service, remains an impediment to ongoing, structurally balanced operations.

Rating Sensitivities

For Upgrade:

  • Delivery of critical Capital Program elements, including state-of-good-repair projects, with maintenance of strong debt service coverage from pledged Transportation Revenues.

For Downgrade:

  • The reappearance of significant unfunded deficits during the Plan Period.
  • A sustained decline in paid ridership.

To access ratings and relevant documents, click here.

Methodologies

Disclosures

A description of all substantially material sources that were used to prepare the credit rating and information on the methodology(ies) (inclusive of any material models and sensitivity analyses of the relevant key rating assumptions, as applicable) used in determining the credit rating is available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) located here.

Information on the meaning of each rating category can be located here.

Further disclosures relating to this rating action are available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) referenced above. Additional information regarding KBRA policies, methodologies, rating scales and disclosures are available at www.kbra.com.

About KBRA

Kroll Bond Rating Agency, LLC (KBRA), one of the major credit rating agencies (CRA), is a full-service CRA registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is registered as a CRA with the European Securities and Markets Authority. Kroll Bond Rating Agency UK Limited is registered as a CRA with the UK Financial Conduct Authority. In addition, KBRA is designated as a Designated Rating Organization (DRO) by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency by Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission and is recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider (CRP) in the U.S.

Doc ID: 1013903