Key Takeaways
- Better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and somewhat reduced geopolitical uncertainty have positioned credit favorably heading into 2026.
- Recent developments remind us that policy uncertainty persists, though investor sentiment has shifted toward a “wait-and-see” mentality in assessing near-term, policy-related economic impacts.
- Consequential near-term factors defining credit market valuation include the path of inflation, the promise of artificial intelligence (AI) to support sustained growth, and signs that late-cycle credit accidents are not widespread.
The View: Our Macro Forecasts
U.S. GDP Growth 2026 Estimate—2.4%
We have bumped up our 2026 forecast to above potential, driven by reduced (but certainly not eliminated) uncertainty on trade and the trajectory of interest rates; the historic wealth effect from a rare multiyear stock run; massive, ongoing investment in technology—particularly AI—and the associated productivity benefits;…