KCP News & Research

KCP Special Report: GameStop Hits Reset - Store Closures and CMBS Exposure
GameStop Corp. (GameStop) announced plans to shutter over 470 U.S. stores by January 31, 2026, the end of its 2025 fiscal year, as part of ongoing portfolio optimization efforts. KBRA Credit Profile (KCP), a division of KBRA Analytics, reviewed its commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) coverage universe and identified 389 properties securing 358loans—$34.6 billion by allocated loan amount (ALA)—across 365 transactions with exposure to GameStop as a tenant.

KCP Payoff Report: January 2026
In January 2026, 194 non-defeased loans ($2.93 billion) matured, of which 46.61% (61 loans; $1.37 billion) by unpaid principal balance (UPB) defaulted at maturity. The default rate for loans collateralized by office was 83.5%, followed by retail (46.89%), lodging (16.69%), and multifamily (0.9%). The paid-off cohort comprises 133 loans ($1.57 billion) with January maturities, including 68 ($863 million) that paid off ahead of schedule.
Total payoffs in January, regardless of original maturity date and excluding liquidations, amounted to $1.63 billion, including 34 loans ($320.6 million) that were previously defeased. Another 34 loans ($518.6 million) paid off ahead of their future scheduled maturities. Meanwhile, 12 loans with an aggregate UPB of $83.4 million were paid off late, but within 90 days of their scheduled maturity.

KCP Credit Alert: Judgement Day Looms for Fifth Ave Property
The borrower of the $215 million 681 Fifth Avenue loan (MSC 2016-UB12, CGCMT 2016-P6, CFCRE 2016-C7, CD 2017-CD3, CSMC 2016-NXSR) has appealed a New York Supreme Court judgement authorizing foreclosure on the underlying 82,600-sf retail and office building in Manhattan. The judgement sets total indebtedness at $261.9 million as of November 2025. The borrower’s appeal challenges the inclusion of compounded default interest and the assessment of default interest for July – November 2023. As covered by KCP in a June 3 credit alert, there has been ongoing litigation since January 2024 regarding workout plans following the loss of the former largest tenant, Tommy Hilfiger (27% of GLA, 78% of base rent), in 2023.

KCP Credit Alert: Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas Mall?
The Fashion Show Mall (LV 2024-SHOW) in Las Vegas faces notable exposure to Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, two of the five anchor tenants at the 1.7 million-sf collateral securing the $850 million loan. The brands’ parent company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on January 13, as covered by a KCP special report. While the two anchors don’t represent a significant portion of mall base rent, with Neiman Marcus accounting for 1.3% and Saks Fifth Avenue only paying common area maintenance, they comprise 20% of the collateral square footage and could potentially trigger co-tenancy provisions if they vacate. At issuance, tenants representing approximately 46% of base rent had co-tenancy provisions related to occupancy triggers.

KCP Insights: Retail Closures and Chapter 11 Bankruptcies
The final numbers are in, and 2025 was a banner year for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance. Private label volume totaled $125.8 billion, the highest level since the global financial crisis, representing an 18.6% year-over-year increase. Growth was driven largely by strong investor demand for single-borrower (SB) deals, which totaled $91.1 billion and represented 72.5% of issuance, with the remainder coming from conduits. Commercial real estate (CRE) collateralized loan obligation (CLO) issuance also increased sharply, finishing the year at $30.6 billion, about 3.5x the 2024 total.
Looking ahead to 2026, issuance is expected to maintain this strong momentum. KBRA forecasts private label CRE securitization volume to reach $143 billion, comprising $38 billion of conduit issuance and $105 billion of SB. CRE CLO issuance is projected to reach $40 billion.

KBRA Credit Profile (KCP) Loss Lookback: December 2025
During the December 2025 remittance period, 11 assets within the KCP coverage universe were resolved with a loss greater than 2% of the unpaid principal balance (UPB). The assets had an aggregate principal balance of $352.4 million and served as collateral in 11 CMBS transactions. Total realized losses of $114.7 million in December represented a 26% decline from November 2025 and were 33% below the trailing 12-month (TTM) average.
The December resolution volume totaled $352.4 million, representing a 34% increase from the prior month ($262.4 million) and a 26% increase from the TTM average of $279.6 million. Realized losses of $114.7 million were 33% down from the TTM average of $170.7 million. The weighted average (WA) loss severity declined to 32.5% in December, down from 59.2% in November and the TTM average of 61.1%. Time to resolution ranged from six to 61 months across the assets resolved in December and averaged 16 months on a weighted basis compared to the WA resolution time of 50 months in November. The historical average time to resolution has been 38 months since KCP began formally tracking liquidations in 2017. When isolating deals issued from 2010 onward, average resolution time drops to 32 months.

KCP Special Report: Francesca’s Final Frontier - Default and Store Closures
In mid-January, Houston-based women’s fashion retailer Francesca’s announced plans to close all of its stores and liquidate inventory. At the time of the announcement, the company operated approximately 450 locations across 45 U.S. states. KBRA Credit Profile (KCP), a division of KBRA Analytics, reviewed its commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) coverage and identified exposure to Francesca’s at 114 properties securing 106 loans—totaling $21.9 billion by allocated loan amount—across 212 transactions.

Borrower Explores Exit Options for Chicago Office Tower
Blackstone is reportedly exploring a sale of its interest in Willis Tower (BBCMS 2018-TALL) and has approached investors regarding an assumption of the $1.3 billion loan. The sponsor acquired the 3.8 million sf Class A office tower in 2015 for $1.3 billion ($344/sf) and has invested approximately $670 million ($177/sf) in renovations. The loan was modified in March 2025 to extend final maturity to March 2030. As of September 2025, the property was 84% occupied with annualized NCF of $131.9 million, up 17% from December 2024 but 3% below issuance expectations.

KCP Credit Alert: Japantown Office Struggles to Clear Maturity Hurdle
The $33.1 million West LA Office - 1950 Sawtelle Boulevard loan (JPMCC 2016-JP3, MSBAM 2016-C30, CGCMT 2016-P5) failed to pay off at its January 2026 scheduled maturity date. The collateral is a 107,000-sf office building in the Sawtelle Japantown neighborhood of Los Angeles. Servicer commentary indicated the sponsor was seeking takeout financing, though loan proceeds are anticipated to fall short of the outstanding loan balance. Occupancy was most recently reported at 43% as of June 2025, with KCP research indicating approximately 83% of the space currently marketed for lease.

KCP Credit Alert: Right-Sizing Pays Off: CMBS Retail Loan Lands Long-Term Tenancy Win
TJ Maxx executed a lease modification reducing its footprint but extending its lease to 2036, while HomeGoods was added as a new long-term tenant. The updates improve rollover risk at the Great Southern Shopping Center (BANK 2018-BN14) which secures a $34.2 million CMBS loan.