KCP News & Research

KCP Special Report: Last Seat in the House - American Signature Closes
American Signature Inc. (American Signature Furniture and Value City Furniture) filed for Chapter 11 in November 2025 and ultimately announced plans to wind down operations and close all stores on January 9. KBRA Credit Profile (KCP) reviewed its commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) coverage and identified 15 properties securing 15 loans—$743.6 million by allocated loan amount—across 24 transactions that have exposure to American Signature or Value City Furniture tenancies.

KCP Credit Alert: Macy’s Commits to RI Mall Lease Renewal
Macy’s, a non-collateral anchor at Providence Place Mall (DBUBS 2011-LC3A), was previously expected to vacate the property amid the retailer’s nationwide store closure program. However, December special servicer commentary indicates that the receiver negotiated a lease amendment with Macy’s extending the tenancy through March 2030, preserving the mall’s primary anchor. The update follows the September 2025 court-approved sale listing of the 981,000-sf collateral portion of the 1.3 million-sf super-regional mall. The $41 million loan failed to pay off at its extended May 2024 maturity and has been under receivership since November 2024.

KCP Credit Alert: New Lease for NYC Office
Natixis has executed a 15-year lease for 203,000 sf (8% of GLA) at 1633 Broadway (BWAY 2019-1633, multiple conduits), with plans to move its headquarters from 1251 Avenue of the Americas beginning in April 2026. The lease carries a starting rent of $71.50/sf at the 48-story, 2.6 million-sf office building located in Theatre District/Times Square submarket in Midtown Manhattan. The property securing the $1.25 billion loan was 93% occupied as of June 2025, and after the announced moveouts by Charter Communications (6% of GLA) and Showtime (10%), and factoring in the Natixis lease (8%), near-term occupancy is expected to fall to roughly 85%.

KCP Credit Alert: Refinancing for Florida Super-Regional Mall
Simon Property Group and Nuveen Real Estate are in the process of obtaining a $615 million mortgage loan to refinance a 1.1 million sf portion of the 1.7 million sf The Florida Mall (SPGN 2022-TFLM) in Orlando, FL. The debt would retire the existing CMBS loan, which matures in February 2026. The loan has one 12-month maturity extension option remaining. The new mortgage loan is expected to be collateral for the SPGN 2026-TFLM SASB, with a five-year term including extension options.

KCP Credit Alert: Renovation Permits Filed for SoCal Resort
The owners of the 603-key Great Wolf Lodge Southern California (BANK 2019-BN17, multiple conduits) filed permits to add a new restaurant called Fireside. The filing appears to mark the kick off a planned $40 million renovation, as outlined in a 2024 restrictive covenant agreement with the city of Garden Grove. Under the agreement, the property owners are to renovate the resort with upgraded dining options, new “dry attractions,” updated rooms, and refreshed amenities in exchange for the city providing a 40% rebate on the property’s Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT), or "bed tax" over 10 years. The property owners agreed to a 15-year covenant ensuring the property remains a Great Wolf Lodge. Completion is expected in Q3 2026, with revenue-sharing payments beginning in 2026–2027.

KCP Credit Alert: Law Firm to Relocate OH Headquarters
In January 2026 Buckingham Doolittle & Burroughs announced plans to move its headquarters from 3800 Embassy Parkway (WFCM 2015-C28) in Fairlawn, Ohio, to the AES Building in Akron. At 3800 Embassy Parkway, it occupies 26% of GLA, making it the second-largest tenant. The firm’s lease expires in October 2026, and the move is expected to decrease occupancy at the property to 62%. The lease is expected to run for 10 years, with extension options, and the new space will be about 13% larger than its current footprint. Per a financial incentive letter from the city, if the tenant moved 70 or more employees to the AES Building, the firm is eligible to receive an annual development grant of $40,000 for five years. Additionally, the city is expected to provide a one-time relocation grant totaling $50,000.

KCP Credit Alert: Philadelphia Office Property Sold
According to sources, the GSK North American HQ (GSMS 2018-GS10, DBGS 2018-C1), a 207,779-sf class A office property in Philadelphia, PA, was sold for $52 million ($250/sf) to the Eastern Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters. The price was in line with KCP’s concluded value of $52.3 million, which has been in place since May 2024. The loan transferred to special servicing in November 2022 and later defaulted at its June 2023 maturity, following the announced termination of the in-place GSK lease, which was scheduled to expire in September 2028. December 2025 special servicer commentary reported that the lender had received the recorded deed and the asset was REO.

KCP K-LOC Index: November 2025
The KBRA Loan of Concern (K-LOC) Index was 27.32% in November 2025, up from 27.02% in October 2025. We identified 98 new loans ($1.91 billion) as K-LOCs in our conduit CMBS coverage universe in November. Conversely, we removed the K-LOC designation from 110 loans ($1.44 billion), including 15 ($262.4 million) that were liquidated in November.
The K-LOC Index for November 2025 is a composite of 3,210 K-LOCs with an aggregate unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $83.12 billion across 523 conduit transactions.

KCP Credit Alert: Office and Mixed-Use Portfolio Loan Transfers to SS
The five-year, $355 million Orion Office Portfolio loan (WFCM 2022-ONL) transferred to special servicing due to imminent monetary default, despite remaining current in payment as of December 2025. The borrower has submitted a modification proposal that would extend the loan past its maturity date in February 2027. The loan is secured by the borrower’s fee and leasehold interests in 19 single-asset office and mixed-use properties across 13 states totaling 2.1 million sf. The portfolio primarily consists of class A office buildings averaging 110,000 sf and 20 years of age. The portfolio was 91% occupied as of September 2025 compared to 100% in 2023 and 2024.

KCP Payoff Report: December 2025
In December 2025, 177 non-defeased loans ($2.75 billion) matured, of which 46.85% (58 loans; $1.29 billion) by unpaid principal balance (UPB) defaulted at maturity. The default rate for loans collateralized by office was 78.5%, followed by multifamily (42.98%), retail (41.6%), and lodging (12.6%). The paid off cohort comprises 119 loans ($1.46 billion) with December maturities, including 55 ($680.8 million) that paid off ahead of schedule.
Total payoffs in December, irrespective of original maturity date and excluding liquidations, amounted to $1.81 billion, including 28 loans ($244.7 million) that were previously defeased. Another 47 loans ($627.7 million) paid off ahead of their future scheduled maturities. Meanwhile, 16 loans with an aggregate UPB of $155 million were paid off late, but within 90 days of their scheduled maturity.